Wednesday, November 26, 2008

The big games this weekend

I think England will bounce back a bit from their thrashing by the Springboks. Obviously I do not think they will win but I cannot see them losing by 36 points again (as much as I would like them to.) It's a big test for Martin Johnson's ability to motivate his players; to have to play the All Blacks after suffering last week's hammering is pretty tough. I don't think any of them will expect they can win the game so if he can encourage them sufficiently to work hard and keep the margin within 20 points he will have done well. The All Blacks are yet to concede a try on tour so far and I see nothing in the England attack to suggest this will change. England will stay in the hunt early with a few penalty goals but the All Blacks will run away with it like they always do; 34-9

The Wallabies have their toughest task of the tour against Wales. For me, Wales are the strongest Northern Hemisphere side at the moment. They showed a tremendous amount of determination against the All Blacks and they are always fired up in front of their home crowd. I always knew the All Blacks would come back in the second half last week, Wales were never going to be able to keep up the intensity for the full 80 minutes but they really played some good rugby throughout the match (the Haka stand off was pretty good too.) Before this round of tests, Wales will have backed themselves to win at least one of their matches against the tri-nations sides and they will definitely fancy their chances against Australia. The France v Australia game was not televised here so I did not get to see it but from what I read the Wallabies were a little fortunate to win with Skrela missing so many shots at goal. Having said that I also believe they put on a solid performance in the second half which is not something they managed to do when it counted in the Bledisloe tests this year. They seem to have managed to keep the momentum up for the full 80 on this tour and that will be essential to a victory against Wales. The Welsh pack are not as daunting as some of the other northern hemisphere packs so I think the Wallabies should really look to impose themselves in the forwards to further prove they are a pack of substance. Phil Waugh will be looking for a big game to show he is still a world class openside. Both sides like to play open rugby so look for the backs to get plenty of ball. I really think Wales can win a close encounter but if Australia defend the way they have on tour so far then I can see them still being in it with 20 to go and if they are, they will win. Wallabies by 7

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